Opposition PRI may get absolute majority in House of Representatives

According to several opinion polls, Mexico's opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) holds a firm lead against the government’s National Action Party (PAN) ahead of mid-term congressional elections to renew the House of Representatives. The polls also predicted a high level of abstention by voters.
Most of the pollsters gave a six point advantage to the PRI – which ruled Mexico for 71 years until 2000 – obtaining between 210 and 220 seats. If it forms an alliance with the Ecologist Green Party, the PRI could even obtain an absolute majority in the lower house, reported EFE, something no political force has achieved since 1994.
A poll published in Reforma showed that PRI could get 38 percent of votes, the conservative PAN party 33 percent and the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) 14 percent. Meanwhile, the number of swing voters rose from 21.3 percent to 28.8 percent.
Another poll published in Demotecnia and conducted by pollster María de la Heras showed that out of 1,000 people interviewed, 35 per cent would vote for PRI, 30 percent for PAN and 15 for the PRD. A survey published in El Universal put PRI in the lead with 29.9 percent of the votes, PAN with 23.8 percent and PRD with 10.8 percent.
According to Publimetro, the Federal Electoral Court was expecting an abstention level of 41 percent among the population. Leonardo Valdés, president of the Federal Election Institute (IFE), remarked that Mexicans' voting habits went through cycles and “this level of participation is normal and demonstrates that the electoral system has stabilized”.
Approximately 77 million people are eligible to vote to renew the 500-seat House of Representatives. Currently, the governing PAN party has a majority of 206 congressmen followed by PRD's 126 seats and the PRI's 106 seats. Six state governors will also be chosen, along with 600 mayors and local representatives in 11 of the country's 32 states.
On July 2 a “period of reflection” begins with a ban on campaigning and opinion polls. Political commentator Javier Aparicio wrote in his column for El Universal, “It's paradoxical that this should happen just when information about the candidates, their parties and their odds of winning is most important to allow citizens to compare alternatives and make up their minds”.